A strong El Niño is on the way and while it won’t solve California’s drought, it looks as though it provide some much-needed precipitation to the state. While beneficial, experts are warning that it’s far from solving water woes.
The National Weather Service had originally expected the majority of the rainfall to hit Southern California, but the agency is now predicting a “more favorable” chance that the rain will hit Northern California. That’s welcome news since the majority of the state’s reservoirs, and natural snow and rainfall, is located in the north.
Low rainfall and extremely high temperatures at night altitudes have left the Sierra Nevada snowpack at a 500-year low. Statewide, snowpacks are so low that they have 0 inches of snow water equivalent. Last year, that number was .1 inch and 10 years ago, it was 18.6.
According to the California Department of Water Resources, Shasta Lake, the state’s largest reservoir, was sitting at 35 percent full, which is only 58 percent of its normal level, earlier this month.
The rain and snow from El Niño is a bit of a blessing and a curse. Due to the widespread wildfires this summer and the longstanding drought, the earth is baked and the possibility for flash flooding and mudslides is high.
The good news is that the snowfall is expected to be three times as high as last year in the northern and central areas of the state. As it melts more slowly in the spring, that water will remain in the ground, rivers and reservoirs rather than overwhelming the system and running off into the Pacific Ocean.
“California cannot count on potential El Niño conditions to halt or reverse drought conditions,” said California State Climatologist Michael Anderson in a statement. “Historical weather data shows us that at best, there is a 50/50 chance of having a wetter winter. Unfortunately, due to shifting climate patterns, we cannot even be that sure.”
Historically, January and February have been the wettest months for California during El Niño years and experts expect the same this year.